Long thesis

Structure: a sweep-reclaim (SFP) of the settled previous-day low pdL $76,389.0 — an obvious, stop-rich Tier 1 level — with pwVAL $76,970.0 and daily VWAP $76,904.9 swept in the same flush to $75,907.5. Trigger: the 12:30 UTC 15-minute candle (O $77,033.4 H $77,649.5 L $75,907.5 C $77,517.6, closed up, shown CLOSED in the facts block) wicked far below pdL/pwVAL/VWAP and closed decisively back above all of them, also reclaiming dPOC $77,337.5, dVAH $77,354.0 and pdEQ $77,439.4 — the reclaim close IS the entry per the SFP rules, so entering at $77,572.7 just above the trigger close is valid, not a chase. Corroboration: CCV bias is long, 4h CVD confirming_up (+436.5 BTC), funding near-neutral +0.0035%, OI falling on short-covering into the flush, and the reclaim of VWAP puts price back above session value. Stop $76,750 gives ~0.2% room beyond the reclaimed pwVAL/dVAL shelf rather than sitting at the deep wick — a close back below that band kills the reclaim; T1 is the first structure above, the D-nPOC/pdPOC magnet at $78,304.5; T2 is pdH $78,489.7, the main objective and the top of yesterday's range; T3 extends to pwPOC $79,706.5. R:R entry→T2 = $917 reward vs $823 risk ≈ 1.11:1 — inside the 1:1–2:1 band, so I invoke the named CCV 2.0 / SFP-reclaim setup at a swept prior-day low with its stated 85–87% TP1 win rate: the mechanical preconditions hold — a standard CCV is present (day opened outside prior-day value at $76,494.9, below pdVAL $77,138.0), the day's low was faked out and reclaimed on the 15m close, and the trade is with the stated long CCV bias, targeting back across prior-day value. t1_fraction 0.20 banks a solid piece at the nPOC given only just-over-50% odds of the full rotation, and the stop moves to breakeven the moment T1 books.