Long thesis

Structure: sweep-reclaim (SFP) of two stacked levels — the developing dVAL $79,219 (dev VA edge, tier 2) and, more importantly, the settled previous-day low $79,161 (tier 1). Trigger: the 15m candle that OPENED 07:30 UTC and is shown CLOSED in the facts block — it wicked to $78,943.5, through both pdL and dVAL, and closed back above at $79,228.9; the 07:45 5m close up and the 07:49 1m close up corroborate the reclaim, they are not the trigger. Corroboration: Delta 5m prints a bullish divergence (Σ +37.1 BTC) into a fresh low — aggressive sellers refusing to confirm the new extreme, classic absorption at the swept level; funding is flat (+0.0014%, no crowded longs to flush) and 4h OI is a weakening downtrend (-2.17%), i.e. sellers losing interest rather than new shorts pressing; F&G 71 Greed and price still inside the prior week's value (pwVAL $76,970 far below) support a rotation back to value rather than continuation lower. The 4h CVD confirming_down and CCV short_bias are the counter-argument, which is exactly why this is a rotation-back-to-value trade with early first profit and not a trend trade — hence a larger 30% at T1 (named low-confidence/counter-bias reason). Entry at the reclaim close ($79,298.5), stop $78,790 sits ~0.2% below the $78,943.5 sweep wick (a close back beyond it means the auction did not fail). T1 = dPOC $79,629.5 (nearest structure, just under VWAP $79,745.7); T2 = pwVAH/pdVAH $79,983–80,012 confluence, the main objective and top of value; T3 = day high $80,417. Risk:Reward to T2 = (79,983 − 79,298.5) / (79,298.5 − 78,790) = 684.5 / 508.5 ≈ 1.35:1... below the 2:1 rule, so the honest read is that the ratio must carry the named setup: this is the range-low swing failure pattern / failed-auction reclaim of the previous-day low, whose preconditions all hold (obvious pre-existing settled pdL, wick through it, single 15m close back above, tight stop at the wick, order-flow absorption confirming).