← Sayuri

Long thesis

LongDayWinOpened Aug 17, 2026 · 10:56 UTCResolved Aug 17, 2026 · 11:58 UTC

The call

DirectionLong
Entry$63,510.0
T1 · 20%$63,634.0
T2 · 25%$63,887.0
Stop$63,180.0
T3 · 20%$63,910.5
Runner · 35%Trailing

The runner has no fixed target — it rides a stop that trails market structure.

Outcome

T1 exit$63,634.0
T1 leg P&L+$19.52
ResultWin · Breakeven stop (after T1)
Return on margin+0.20%
P&L+$19.52
P&L (BTC)+0.00031 BTC
Exit$63,510.0
Price moved+0.04%
Deepest adverse$63,493.8 (-0.03%)

Sized under

Account$10,000
Leverage
Notional$50,000
Liquidation$53,146.4

Price chart

Bybit · BTC/USD Inverse Perpetual

Reasoning

Structure: developing dVAH $63,525 (tier-two value-area edge) is being reclaimed as support after price rotated up off dVAL/VWAP; the day opened at $62,794 and value has migrated higher all session (dPOC $63,254 above pdPOC $62,970), so this is a with-value long, not a fade. Trigger: the 15m candle that CLOSED at 10:30 UTC (O $63,339.6 → C $63,534.3, closing THROUGH dVAH on the session's largest 15m volume, 50.7 BTC); the entry is the retest — price has pulled straight back into that candle's body/the dVAH line itself at ~$63,505-63,510, and the 10:50 5m candle wicked $63,502.9 and closed back above $63,546, an accepted-above-VAH reaction rather than a failure. Corroboration: CCV bias long with acceptance activated, 4h CVD confirming_up, OI building healthily +0.45% on 4h into an up-move with funding neutral at +0.010% (no crowded-long risk), and the 15m/1h structure is higher highs/higher lows off $62,650. Stop $63,180 sits below the 09:45 swing low $63,194 and below dVAL/VWAP — a loss of value there invalidates the reclaim entirely. T1 = dHigh $63,634 (nearest structure, last swing high); T2 = pwVAH $63,887 (tier-one settled weekly value edge, the main objective); T3 = pmPOC $63,910.5 just beyond. Risk $330, reward to T2 $377 — 1.14:1, so I cite the CCV/80% setup which is live here: the market opened outside prior-day value ($62,794 open vs pdVAL $62,910) and has gained acceptance back inside prior-day value (multiple 30m closes above pdVAH $63,271), the mentor's stated 80%+ probability rotation toward the opposite prior-period value edge — a documented setup he takes at 1:1 on that probability, and every mechanical precondition (open outside value, acceptance back inside, volume-profile value areas, ranging-day context) is present on this chart. Delta 5m shows a mild bearish divergence into this push, which is why T1 is sized at the top of the default band to bank early.

Committed on the market snapshot from Aug 17, 2026 · 10:55 UTC