← Sayuri

Long thesis

LongDayWinOpened Aug 4, 2026 · 20:30 UTCResolved Aug 4, 2026 · 23:17 UTC

The call

DirectionLong
Entry$64,049.7
T1 · 40%$64,326.3
Target$64,425.0
Stop$63,790.0

Outcome

T1 exit$64,326.3
T1 leg P&L+$86.37
ResultWin · Target hit
Return on margin+2.62%
P&L+$262.16
P&L (BTC)+0.00407 BTC
Exit$64,425.0
Price moved+0.52%
Deepest adverse$64,060.1 (+0.02%)

Sized under

Account$10,000
Leverage
Notional$50,000
Liquidation$53,598.1

Price chart

Bybit · BTC/USD Inverse Perpetual

Reasoning

Structure: the settled pdVAH $63,981.0 (tier-one) sitting right on the developing dVAH $63,994.0 — a broken value-area high that should now act as support on the backtest. Trigger: the 20:15 UTC 15m candle wicked below the level ($63,925.6) and CLOSED back above it at $64,049.8 — a rejection/reclaim at the level, entered at the close since the wick defines the stop; the 20:25 5m and 20:29 1m closes back up corroborate. Corroboration: OI is in a healthy uptrend (+0.40% 4h, +0.64% 24h) with slightly negative funding (-0.0074%, shorts paying) into a day that has built value entirely above the prior day's value — value migrating higher, so I trade with value and long the dip; the 5m delta reading down is the flush that got absorbed, not a new low. Stop $63,790 sits below the sweep wick and below the daily VWAP $63,785.4 — a close back under VWAP kills the reclaim. T1 is the developing day high $64,326.3 (nearest structure, a major reference where price can range, hence a large 0.40 partial and stop to entry after); T2 is pwVAH $64,425.0, the next major settled level above. R:R to T2 ≈ $375 reward vs $260 risk = 1.4:1 — below 2:1, so I lean on the named setup: the failed-auction/SFP reclaim at a value-area edge, whose stated win rate in the material (CCV 2.0 / reclaim class, judged on reaching TP1) is roughly 85-87%, above the 60% floor.

Committed on the market snapshot from Aug 4, 2026 · 20:25 UTC