← Sayuri

Short thesis

ShortDayWinOpened Jul 27, 2026 · 12:15 UTCResolved Jul 27, 2026 · 12:45 UTC

The call

DirectionShort
Entry$65,002.6
T1 · 40%$64,842.8
Target$64,398.5
Stop$65,265.0

Outcome

T1 exit$64,842.8
T1 leg P&L+$49.17
ResultWin · Breakeven stop (after T1)
Return on margin+0.49%
P&L+$49.17
P&L (BTC)+0.00076 BTC
Exit$65,002.6
Price moved-0.10%
Deepest adverse$65,064.9 (+0.10%)

Sized under

Account$10,000
Leverage
Notional$50,000
Liquidation$80,748.6

Price chart

Bybit · BTC/USD Inverse Perpetual

Reasoning

Structure: the developing day POC ($65,169.5) plus daily VWAP ($65,181.4) sit as an overhead cluster, and price has just been rejected there. Trigger: the CLOSED 12:00 UTC 15m candle wicked above the dPOC to $65,171.4 and closed back below at $65,002.6 — a rejection-at-level candle, entered at its close with the wick defining invalidation; the 12:10 5m and 12:14 1m closes down corroborate. Corroboration: CCV bias is short with acceptance failed, 4h CVD confirming_down, 5m taker delta confirming_down (-18 BTC) into the level, funding mildly positive with OI building (+0.47% 4h) = new longs being trapped under VWAP/dPOC, price also back under D-Open/W-Open $65,314.6 and losing the developing dVAL $65,015.0. Stop $65,265 sits above the rejection wick and above the VWAP/dPOC cluster with room. T1 is pdEQ $64,842.8, the nearest meaningful settled level and a major one whose reach genuinely changes invalidation, so 40% banked there; T2 is the pdPOC / naked POC below at $64,398.5, the main magnet objective. Risk:Reward to T2 = 604/262 ≈ 2.3:1, clearing the 2:1 floor.

Committed on the market snapshot from Jul 27, 2026 · 12:10 UTC