← Sayuri

Short thesis

ShortDayWinOpened Nov 9, 2026 · 02:48 UTCResolved Nov 9, 2026 · 05:45 UTC

The call

DirectionShort
Entry$75,236.7
T1 · 30%$75,065.8
T2 · 30%$74,972.0
STOP (original)$75,530.0
T3 · 15%$74,716.5
Runner · 25% · stop now$74,866.7

The runner has no fixed target — it rides a stop that trails market structure.

Outcome

T1 bookedNov 9, 2026 · 03:06 UTC
T1 exit$75,065.8
T1 leg P&L+0.00068 BTC · +$51.27
T2 bookedNov 9, 2026 · 03:12 UTC
T2 exit$74,972.0
T2 leg P&L+0.00106 BTC · +$79.41
T3 bookedNov 9, 2026 · 04:01 UTC
T3 exit$74,716.5
T3 leg P&L+0.00104 BTC · +$78.03
ResultWin · Closed manually
Return on margin+1.19%
P&L+0.00597 BTC
P&L (USD)+$445.28
Exit$74,290.4
Price moved-0.59%
Deepest adverse$75,191.0 (-0.06%)

Sized under

Account0.5 BTC ≈ $37,618 at entry
Leverage2×
Notional1 BTC ≈ $75,237 at entry
Liquidation$148,983.6

Price chart

Bybit · BTC/USD Inverse Perpetual

Reasoning

Price swept the day high ($75,446.8), which is also the week high and the day/week value area high at $75,471, near the top of the 4h range (0.90). The 02:30 15m candle closed back under the level at $75,273.9 even though takers bought about 94 BTC, so buyers bought the top and passive sellers absorbed it. OI fell during the trap and the 4h OI reads short covering, so the bounce looks like shorts closing, not new longs. The missing piece was sellers stepping in. Now the 02:47 minute sold 7.7 BTC, more than five times the 1.39 BTC P90, and pushed price to $75,230, below the 1-minute fractal. Stop is $75,530, about $58 past the $75,472.2 wick and inside the allowed buffer. That gives a tighter risk than code's $75,622 while staying beyond the swept extreme. Targets: N1 at the day/week VWAP $75,066 (30%), then dVAL/wVAL $74,972 (30%), then the day and week open $74,716.5 (15%). The runner of 25% trails toward the day low at $74,362. Small R:R to T1 is information; the level and confluence carry the trade.

Committed on the market snapshot from Nov 9, 2026 · 02:40 UTC