Short thesis
The call
The runner has no fixed target — it rides a stop that trails market structure.
Outcome
Open — not yet resolved.
Sized under
Price chart
Reasoning
Price swept the 17:00 1H swing high, which is also the top of the 4h range, and went into the DANIEL range VAL at $76,050. It was beyond the level for only 2 minutes. Takers bought into the break: +7.6 BTC, 46x the median volume. Then price drifted back under the D-Open and the dVAH, and the 22:13 minute sold -5.49 BTC (2x P90), cutting the cumulative delta since the sweep to +1.97. Open interest was flat, so I see no sign of a strong new long build-up holding the break. The pmL/pwL shelf at $76,160 sits above as resistance. The day is still in value under a falling D candle, with the day VWAP and POC near $75,550-75,600, so a move back to them is the natural target. I use real levels, not the 1m EMA: dPOC $75,594 (about 1R) books 30%, VWAP $75,548 books 30%, dVAL $75,248 books 15%, and the runner aims at RL $75,060. The stop is $76,140, about 0.1% past the $76,065 wick. That is tighter than the course's 0.2% buffer but still past the wick and under the pmL/pwL cluster. Risks: the tape is very thin, the 15m candle has not closed yet, and the level is only tier 2 at 0.82 of the 24h range, not at the very top of it.
Committed on the market snapshot from Nov 6, 2026 · 22:10 UTC