Long thesis
The call
The runner has no fixed target — it rides a stop that trails market structure.
Outcome
Sized under
Price chart
Reasoning
The swept level is the developing day low at $76,669. It is the bottom of the 4-hour range (position 0.00), and dVAL $76,703 and D-S $76,648.8 sit beside it. The sweep followed the textbook shape. The sweep minute had almost no delta (+0.42 BTC) on 9x normal volume and $86 of long liquidations. The next minute pushed +5.10 BTC (1.32x P90) and closed back above the level at $76,719.5. The last two 15m candles turned positive (+7.0 and +6.0 BTC) after an hour of selling, so buyers are stepping in at the range edge. Risks: the 4-hour CVD is heavily negative, the level is at 0.26 of the 24h range, and the stronger pdL/RL at $76,230 still sits below as a magnet. Because of that I size the early targets heavier. Stop: $76,540, below the $76,600 wick and also below mVAL/wVAL ($76,564/$76,551). That puts it about 0.08% past the extreme, tighter than the default, which gives the trade usable R:R. If price breaks below $76,550 the sweep has failed. Targets: N1 is the mPOC at $76,846 (30%). N3 is the D-VWAP/day VWAP at about $76,965-970 (30%). L33 is the pdPOC/dVAH cluster at about $77,050 (15%). The 25% runner trails toward the D-Open at $77,323.
Committed on the market snapshot from Nov 4, 2026 · 02:15 UTC