Long thesis
The call
The runner has no fixed target — it rides a stop that trails market structure.
Outcome
Open — not yet resolved.
Sized under
Price chart
Reasoning
This low is the floor of both the 4h and 24h ranges, and it sits right on the weekly value-area low and the Daniel range VAL (~$76,444-450). The sweep went $107 below it. In the 03:01 minute sellers hit hard (-42 BTC delta, about 13x normal volume) while open interest rose 0.29%, so new shorts and stopped longs were trapped under the level. Price never accepted down there: it spent only 3 minutes below, and the low printed at $76,401. Then at 03:08 buyers pushed back (+15.5 BTC, 5x the P90). That minute closed above the 1-minute fractal at $76,655 and back above pdL, pdVAL and the day open. This differs from yesterday's dLow passes, where price stayed under the level with open interest rising: this time price came back fast with flow against the sweep. Stop $76,247.6: about 0.2% below the $76,401 low and just past the pwVAL at $76,239. Targets: (1) the dPOC at $76,978 (the 4h POC is $76,987), the first real value magnet, booking 30%; (2) the pwPOC at $77,411, a tier 1 level next to the month open, booking 25%; (3) the SFP 2.0 at $78,095, booking 20%. The last 25% trails as a runner toward the range high at $78,743.
Committed on the market snapshot from Nov 3, 2026 · 03:05 UTC