← Sayuri

Long thesis

LongDayWinOpened Oct 14, 2026 · 06:15 UTCResolved Oct 14, 2026 · 08:41 UTC

The call

DirectionLong
Entry$83,472.2
T1 · 20%$83,588.0
T2 · 25%$83,840.9
STOP (original)$83,150.0
T3 · 20%$84,054.4
Runner · 35%Trailing

The runner has no fixed target — it rides a stop that trails market structure.

Outcome

T1 bookedOct 14, 2026 · 08:02 UTC
T1 exit$83,588.0
T1 leg P&L+0.00028 BTC · +$23.16
T2 bookedOct 14, 2026 · 08:06 UTC
T2 exit$83,840.9
T2 leg P&L+0.00110 BTC · +$92.18
ResultWin · Breakeven stop (after T1)
Return on margin+0.28%
P&L+0.00138 BTC
P&L (USD)+$115.34
Exit$83,472.2
Price moved+0.14%
Deepest adverse$83,210.6 (-0.31%)

Sized under

Account0.5 BTC ≈ $41,736 at entry
Leverage2×
Notional1 BTC ≈ $83,472 at entry
Liquidation$55,834.2

Price chart

Bybit · BTC/USD Inverse Perpetual

Reasoning

Structure: the 06:00 UTC 15-minute candle is a level-reaction long — it wicked down through pmVAH $83,245 (Tier-1 settled previous-month VAH) and the developing dPOC $83,321.5, then CLOSED back above both and above daily VWAP $83,449.8 at $83,458.5. That is the classic reject-at-the-level / reclaim shape, and because the wick itself defines invalidation I can enter at the close (current $83,472.2 is that close), with the 5m 06:10 close and 1m 06:14 VWAP reclaim corroborating. Corroboration: 4h CVD confirming_up, funding benign at +0.0044%, day is building value above the D-Open $83,065 with the prior 4h candle closed up, and price is holding above pdPOC/pmVAH — value migrating higher; OI only mildly short-covering, which does not veto. Stop $83,150 sits ~0.1% below the sweep wick at $83,231.9 and under dVAL $83,167, where the reclaim is proven wrong. T1 dVAH $83,588 (nearest structural edge, also just under W-Open $83,637.5), T2 the developing day high $83,840.9 (main objective), T3 pdH $84,054.4 (Tier-1 extension). Risk:Reward entry→T2 is $368.7 / $322.2 ≈ 1.14:1 — below 2:1, so I invoke the named-setup exception: this is the Swing Failure Pattern / failed-auction reclaim at a Tier-1 level and the day-book CCV 2.0 family trigger (fake-out of a level then close back across), whose stated win rate in the material is 85–87% measured to TP1; preconditions all hold — an obvious pre-existing level swept (pmVAH), a confirming 15m close back above it, tight invalidation at the sweep wick, and nothing in the broader signals contradicting the long. T1 fraction 0.20 given the compressed R:R, and the stop goes to breakeven the moment T1 books.

Committed on the market snapshot from Oct 14, 2026 · 06:15 UTC