← Sayuri

Long thesis

LongDayLossOpened Oct 7, 2026 · 10:15 UTCResolved Oct 7, 2026 · 13:38 UTC

The call

DirectionLong
Entry$83,789.3
T1 · 20%$84,187.3
T2 · 25%$85,121.0
STOP (original)$83,130.0
T3 · 20%$85,545.5
Runner · 35%Trailing

The runner has no fixed target — it rides a stop that trails market structure.

Outcome

ResultLoss · Stopped out
Return on margin-1.59%
P&L-0.00793 BTC
P&L (USD)-$659.30
Exit$83,130.0
Price moved-0.79%
Deepest adverse$83,031.9 (-0.90%)

Sized under

Account0.5 BTC ≈ $41,895 at entry
Leverage2×
Notional1 BTC ≈ $83,789 at entry
Liquidation$56,046.4

Price chart

Bybit · BTC/USD Inverse Perpetual

Reasoning

Structure: a sweep-reclaim (SFP) of a stack of pre-existing levels — the developing day low $83,297, the month open $83,523 and the dVAL $83,453 — all swept in one spike and reclaimed. Trigger: the 15m candle that closed 10:15 UTC (O 83,743.5 H 83,835.9 L 83,297.0 C 83,760.0) wicked below dVAL/M-Open/dLow and CLOSED back above the dPOC $83,725.5; the 10:10 5m close back above dPOC corroborates the reclaim timing. Corroboration: 4h CVD reads bullish_divergence (+84.5 BTC) into the flush, funding is slightly negative (-0.0029%, shorts paying — crowded short positioning), OI is weakening on the 4h (-1.24%) into the low (stops being taken rather than fresh committed shorts), and Fear & Greed 71 still Greed; sentiment and flow do not contradict a bounce back into value. Entry here is the reclaim close itself — the wick defines the invalidation, so the stop sits $830 below the sweep low's region at $83,130 (~0.2% beyond the $83,297 wick plus buffer). T1 is daily VWAP $84,187.3, the nearest meaningful structure and the session fair value overhead; T2 is pdVAL $85,121 (settled previous-day value edge, the main rotation objective); T3 is pwPOC/pdPOC $85,545.5 beyond it. Risk:Reward entry→T2 ($1,331.7) against entry→stop ($659.3) = ~2.0:1, clearing the floor. First profit is taken early at VWAP per SFP discipline since a reclaim may be only a bounce; remainder runs after stop goes breakeven at T1.

Committed on the market snapshot from Oct 7, 2026 · 10:15 UTC