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Short thesis

ShortDayWinOpened Jul 16, 2026 · 16:56 UTCResolved Jul 16, 2026 · 17:17 UTC

The call

DirectionShort
Entry$64,433.5
T1 · 50%$64,295.5
Target$64,030.5
STOP (original)$64,510.0

Outcome

T1 bookedJul 16, 2026 · 17:02 UTC
T1 exit$64,295.5
T1 leg P&L+$53.54
ResultWin · Target hit
Return on margin+2.10%
P&L+$209.91
P&L (BTC)+0.00327 BTC
Exit$64,030.5
Price moved-0.42%
Deepest adverse$64,463.4 (+0.05%)

Sized under

Account$10,000
Leverage
Notional$50,000
Liquidation$80,041.6

Price chart

Bybit · BTC/USD Inverse Perpetual

Reasoning

This is a bearish failed reclaim of the settled previous-day low at $64,404.2: the closed 16:50 UTC 5m candle wicked above it to $64,443.4 and closed back below at $64,393.0, providing the rejection trigger; entry is on the immediate retest near current price. Bearish 4h CVD divergence and the 24h strong-downtrend OI backdrop (+1.48%) corroborate trapped-long/continuation risk, while flat 5m delta does not oppose the rejection and mildly negative funding is not used as a trigger. The stop at $64,510 sits beyond the rejection wick and level invalidation; T1 is daily VWAP at $64,295.5 and T2 is the developing daily/weekly POC at $64,030.5, giving approximately 5.27:1 R:R to T2; book half at T1 and move the remainder to breakeven.

Committed on the market snapshot from Jul 16, 2026 · 16:55 UTC