Short thesis

ShortDayWinOpened Jul 16, 2026 · 07:41 UTCResolved Jul 16, 2026 · 08:36 UTC

The call

DirectionShort

Entry$64,179.1

T1 · 50%$63,938.5

Target$63,737.5

STOP (original)$64,395.0

Outcome

T1 bookedJul 16, 2026 · 08:10 UTC

T1 exit$63,938.5

T1 leg P&L+$93.72

ResultWin · Breakeven stop (after T1)

Return on margin+0.94%

P&L+$93.72

P&L (BTC)+0.00147 BTC

Exit$64,179.1

Price moved-0.19%

Deepest adverse$64,200.0 (+0.03%)

Sized under

Account$10,000

Leverage5×

Notional$50,000

Liquidation$79,725.6

Price chart

Bybit · BTC/USD Inverse Perpetual

Reasoning

The developing day VAL at $64,268 failed: the closed 07:35 UTC 5m candle opened above it and closed below at $64,179.1, providing a confirmed downside level-reaction trigger rather than a proximity entry. The break is corroborated by confirming-down 5m delta and 4h CVD, rising OI during the decline, positive funding that can trap longs, and aligned lower highs/lows across the local tape; price is also below daily VWAP. Entry is at the trigger close, with invalidation just above that candle’s $64,394.1 high; T1 is the settled previous-week POC at $63,938.5 and T2 is the daily naked POC at $63,737.5, giving approximately 2.05:1 R:R to T2.

Committed on the market snapshot from Jul 16, 2026 · 07:40 UTC